History of past storm discussions. 

There it is.. the B-word which is rare for this time of the year. Usually a january or Feburary event in which we have to dust off the blizzard word, and yeah even March as well. But this storm here is loaded for bear and with plenty of moisture and is attacking into the cold with snows now breaking out in the Piedmont regions of Carolina. The snows will continue on north and east reaching Baltimore/Washington after 11pm tonight and northern Delaware by 3 or 4 am. I expect snow to begin falling here just before daybreak. Snow will fall light to start and get heavier through the morning and really start coming down in the afternoon and evening hours. Winds will pick up in the afternoon from 15 - 30 moh with gusts to 40 mph causing extensive blowing and drifting of the snow. Temps will fall back into the mid 20s during the storm so this should be a powdery snow come later Saturday - Saturday Night. Visibility will be an issue with less than a 1/4 mile at times during the heavy periods.

i have adjusted the snow map and feel pretty confident that the I-95 corridor and 50 miles on either side are in for the worst of it from New York down to Washington including Philly. There can be some mixing of sleet and rain along the coast of Del and NJ which is why i held the snow amts down in those areas a bit. Coastal flooding and serious beach erosion is likely which is sad beings they just got walloped down the shore a month ago with that noreaster. Winds along the coast could reach 60 mph during the height of the storm tomorrow and in all area, some scattered power outages are likely.

The snow should end by late Saturday Night - early Sunday Morning from south to north.

Updates as needed at this point.

kjc

M.E.C.S. (Major East Coast Snowstorm) Event for the Following areas of concern:
... Eastern third of TN ...... All of VA even Hampton Roads...
... All of MD... except for far western MD...... All of DE...
... All of southeast PA...
... Southern and Central NJ into eastern Long Island...

An early Christmas gift for some but more like a disruptive kick in the pants for most is on the way for Saturday into Saturday Night. If you are a FB dweller - you have been reading my information from last night into the day about the prospects of a significant snowstorm for the region. You can now crank that up a notch to a major snowstorm as of now. Low pressure coming out of the Gulf will move to a position over northern Georgia/South Carolina to Cape Hatteras. For you snow geese, you know when you hear those locations for a storm to travel is big big big. Big big big meaning big snows for the mid-atlantic and northern mid-atlantic into sections of the northeast. I have been rolling out some numbers as of last night which included
2-6 inches for our area with this storm. You can erase those numbers as now things are starting to really come together with this storm and it appears now that it will not just go out to sea off of the Carolina coast, but in fact move up the Atlantic seaboard depositing large amounts of snow from Washington/Baltimore on up the I-95 corridor including Philly. Areas from Philly and its northern and western suburbs ( that means us )
down into northern MD/Northern DE/South Jersey can expect 4 - 8 inches with places in central and southern DE and southern NJ looking at 10" + . Honestly, I am becoming more convinced that Philly and it's burbs will be in the thick of the high amounts ( 8 - 12 inches plus ) when we get up tomorrow morning and really start to see this storm take shape.
Now's your opportunity to get things in order as this is coming together to be a serious event starting Late Fri night in Balt/Wash then 8am toward Philly Saturday for start times.


More later
Ken

If you walked outside tonight to do some xmas shopping you can certainly feel the cold really starting to set in the region. The cold is in fact going to lock in for the next 6-8 days with temps mostly in the 30s during this stretch. So we got the cold, now what about the moisture. Some of you have been hearing the grumblings of maybe something happening this weekend and maybe not. As you know, there is plenty of fear amongst our TV mets in not getting caught with their pants down by making a gut shot call on any storm around these parts. You know who I am referring to. Well, in all fairness it is not so much fear anymore but accountability. The problem is some forecasters get caught up with "model hugging" in which they change their forecast each time a new model run comes in. Example, I could go on record right now and commit to an all out major snowstorm for xmas eve in xmas day with well over a foot of snow because this mornings models depicted such an event. Not so fast though, as with all these models there is always a storm depicted every 7 to 9 days on the long range and sure they look pretty, but not necessarily come to fruition.

Let's take this upcoming weekends possibility that is now looking more like probability. All week the models were all over the place with this storm. But up until early this morning, most models had this storm staying suppressed to the south and missing us completely. This is where you need to look at the pattern as well as the blocking in SE Canada, the warm waters just off the north mid atlantic coast and realize that just because the models say one thing doesnt mean that is etched in stone. Later this afternoon and particularly tonight, the models have trended further north and west with the storm and bring accumulating snow from Philly south and east with the jersey shore getting clobbered by 6+ inches of snow. I don't want to get bullish just yet with those numbers but I feel pretty good about the prospects of this storm coming up the coast a bit further than was first thought this week. And with that my first posting of early numbers which will probably change at least once or twice by Friday. Again this event would be from Saturday afternoon into early morning hrs of Sunday. Have a good night.

doppler ken