The Winter from hell continues this week. Major to once again potential crippling blizzard looking more probable for Tues Eve into Wed Eve. The night guidance continues to show SE Pa including Philly, northern Del, southern NJ except the immediate coast up through NYC and just south of Boston the target area for a foot or more of snow along with even stronger winds than the past storm. Concern is for a longer lasting period of this storm now because of it slowing down once it blows up off the SJersey coast and then begins to pull northeastward. It is hard to believe how much snow we have had with 2 storms this season, but to think of a 3rd storm with 20 inches plus is unheard of. I will have more tomorrow morning.
STORM UPDATE FOR TUE/WED FEB 9TH-10TH: 5pm Feb 7th
I will have more later on this after the super bowl. If you read my earlier post on here, I started talking about our next storm and what it looks to deliver. It does appear to be more Philly to NYC into Boston. Balt/Wash still looks good for about 4 - 8 inches, but the 12+ looks to be Philly on northeastward. Like i said, more later as the evening guidance becomes available. I would start preparing tomorrow for possible school days for Wed and maybe Thursday as well though for you parents.
FINAL SNOW TOTALS FOR BLIZZARD FEB 5 - 6th 2010:
Feb 6th - 3am Update:
3:30 am Update: All i can say is WOW ! Thumping snows at 1-2 inches + per hour falling since 10pm as we are in the grip of one hell of a storm here folks. Pressures are dropping like mad off the Virginia/Carolina coastline as the coastal gets cranking and taking over now. Approaching the 10-12 inches in Plymouth Mtg at this hour and we aren't done yet. I'm expecting snow at this intensity to continue in the am and eventually lighten up a bit into the afternoon before it finally ends. Looking at an impressive radar with multitudes of moisture coming in off the Atlantic as well as these strengthening winds out of NE. Temps will start to lower as well later this morning which also means the moisture content of the snow will decrease making it more of a powder consistency. That would be a bit better to shovel than wet snow. I am happy with my call of the numbers and feel good about falling into the 16 - 20 inches range give or take a couple inches on either end. And i wouldn't be surprised if some of you measure 2 feet with the way it is coming down. Oh well, back for a nap and more later.
Feb 5th (Posted 9:30am)
Final Map and Morning thoughts on the upcoming blizzard
I want to quickly reference the map attached so its understood. Currently the storm is on target for a 3 - 6 pm start time from SW to NE. The worst of the snow (1-2 inches per hour) will fall between 11pm tonight into 9am tomorrow. Steady snow ...with high winds continue into early afternoon before it tapers off. Now the most recent runs of the models do show a QPF (amount of liquid) being yielded over our area of 1.25 to 1.50". With a snow ration of 10:1 - 12:1 which would be in line for a 12 - 15 inch snow storm. That is why i put a 12-20 inch window for most of us. Lower amounts to the north and higher to the south. If the storm jogs further north than what we see on the models now, we can certainly up the numbers to 20 inches. Thats it for now. I will make tweaks as we go along with numbers and snow starts. kjc
Regional Temps and Conditions
WINTER 2009 OUTLOOK - Posted November 20th:
As we prepare for another Thanksgiving then leading into Christmas, it has become a tradition of many weather prognosticators to give it their best shot in looking ahead at the next 3 - 4 months in seeing what Mother Nature may bring us for the winter season. It's never an easy undertaking as so many things go into projections for a whole season let alone what’s going to happen next week. The things that stick out now most definitely could change by the end of December that would completely change any long range outlook. But fear I do not as I don't make any money off of this what-so-ever !! So here it goes.
December Yes, I do believe this will be a significant winter this upcoming season as compared to past winter's. Significant with regard to more snow above the normal means as well as cold. I think we start stepping down into cooler weather the first part of December, but the really cold will still be bottled up in the Arctic and Canada regions. Some cold shots and maybe some rain/snow events or flurries, but nothing more than an inch or 2 for the month of December.
January This is when winter really gets into gear across the eastern sections, specifically from the northern Virginia sections on up the I95 corridor into New YorkState. I am looking at a total of 4 - 5 snow events for January. Snowfall averages usually around 8 inches for the month. I am looking at 10 - 16 inches. Mind you, one of these storms could be major and lay down 8 inches or so on its own, which would significantly higher these amounts. But i like my accumulations right now, so i will stick with it. Temps will also be below normal by about 1 - 2 degrees. Several heavy duty cold events with temps staying in the upper teens and twenties look to be in order.
February February will follow with similar results as deep troughs will push the cold well into Florida and definitely cause issues with the orange growth for farmers. Temps will average slightly below normal to about normal for most of the month. Some slight warming will take place if you call 40's for a few days warm. As for snow, I am looking at 3 - 4 snow events for the month with accumulations in the range of 8 - 12 inches.
March We start thinking about spring and the flowers and trees blooming. I do think that springlike weather will be felt, but you will have to wait til after mid month like the 20th for the warmer temps to hit. March is always one of the most tempermental months with the biggest snows piling up during the spring equinox, while a few days later it could be 60 degrees. I see one snow event perhaps 2 tops with no more than about 4 - 6 inches piling up.
The WILDCARD As i mentioned before, all it takes is for us to have one mega storm to come up the coast ( what we call a noreater ) and drop it's Atlantic moisture on us in Jan/Feb time period. It is events like this that make weather people like me stay up and lose sleep. But it's all good. Think back to the winter of 1996. 65 inches of snow accumulated that winter as it was the snowiest in SE Pa on record. Of course you can't forget the blizzard on Jan 7 - 8 that dumped 31 inches on us in 24 hrs. I can't say if something like that will ever be repeated, but one storm dropping 12-20 inches wouldn't surprise me and would definitely up my numbers dramatically.
That's it for now. Please feel free to give me your thoughts and what you think this winter will bring. tell me when you think the first accumulating snow will hit the area........
Doppler Ken
Want to take a look at the past storm discussion write ups. Click on the link below to take you to the archive page. kjc
